which will take up some space in our export markets. You Wenfeng

Despite the easing of liquidity in the market is expected this week and new industry policy of positive factors, such as, but more bad factors: such as HSBC published November Manufacturing PMI since the initial 32-month low, indicate that the economic downturn situation increasingly obvious; eurozone November PMI for three consecutive months atrophy; Germany sign debt sale difficult, there are again signs of proliferation the European debt crisis; the United States economyBeen slow to recover, and so on. Under the bad factors suppressing, stock indexes continued weak turbulence this week, yesterday huzhi closed at 2,380, down 36 points in a week, or 1.49%. Contour-lien after yin, Outlook will go from here? To this end, the financial investment Pao reporters exclusively interviewed the great wall Securities Institute Director Xiang Weida, Hong Yuan securities Jie Xuecheng, Deputy Director of the Institute, guangfa securities principalPolicy analyst tour wenfeng. ����Macro: dismal main capital stocks (eleven-twenty fifths) unit fled to cut meat must regret having sudden boom is not likely in a move investors Gospel: hold stocks saved swtor power leveling!����Interviewer: you study for macro-economic fundamentals at home and abroad? Weldon: the current situation is investment and exports are slowing�� From an investment perspective, comprehensive real estate market cools, its effects should not be underestimated; from the perspective of exports, due to the influence of European and American debt crises, coupled with the sharp rise in labor costs in China, export the situation is getting bad. HSBC published the November Manufacturing PMI initial value is 48, not only 3% 51 lower than last month, and 50 per cent of this blightLine, indicating that the manufacturing industry is in a bad state. Of course, HSBC published the November PMI initial, primary samples come from small and medium enterprises, and economic slowdown in small and medium enterprises and more obvious. Recently appeared in Germany debt sales difficulties, indicating that European debt crisis is spreading to Germany, and Germany are major countries in the euro zone, this phenomenon appears on marketA greater impact. Jie Xuecheng: HSBC publication November PMI initial values for 48, a 32-month low. This reflects the growth of industrial production is likely to slow further, growth will be the 2012 macro-policy priority. Eurozone November PMI data released on Wednesday is shrinking for three consecutive months, industrial orders per cent decrease in the nearFor three years. More concerns from have always been considered a superior asset Germany bonds auction in the 23rd, the 35% of these assets has not been bid showing stagnant demand in the market, its out of trouble will be unusually slow, the euro seems to have become a time bomb, from time to explosion, global market turmoil, direct impact on China's economy is falling exports. It should alsoSee, because of the worsening of the debt crisis in Europe, the euro, European countries might increase, which will take up some space in our export markets. You Wenfeng: HSBC China Manufacturing PMI initial decline, reflecting slower domestic demand and weakness in external demand, indicating that in the next few months swtor credits, industrial production rose most likely fell back to 11%sh;12%�� Under the premise of internal and external-demand is slowing, "steady growth" that guarantees economic growth has been above 8%, will become the most important task of macro-policy next year. Eurozone GDP quarter in the third quarter rose 0.2% because the Franco-German economic growth, so it hopes on mitigation European debt crisis in Germany and France was, but it now appears that theyAlso "clay Idol across the RiverZhejiang 6 rural cooperative bank "recovery" implementation of the 16% reserve is a loosening of monetary policy signals? Weldon: the current CPI fell, is expected in November down to around 5%, indicating that inflationary pressures had eased, from the current macro-economic fundamentals at home and abroad are not optimistic, necessity of the continued tightening of monetary policy is unlikely. At the same time,October first decline in foreign exchange accounts for nearly 4 years, on the one hand show that China's exports to slow down, on the other hand also suggests that foreign capital outflow increased. In such cases, the management to prevent the economy from falling too fast on monetary policy is also needed for fine-tuning. People's Bank of China Center of Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province, 6 rural cooperative bank resume 16% reserve, indicating that future goodsCurrency policy will remain in a stable on the basis of an appropriate amount of fine-tuning, reserve ratio cut power become stronger, the window will open before and after the next one or two quarters, especially in February next year. At the same time did not rule out the recent Central Bank through difference reserve ratio adjustment guide credit and steady growth.����Of course, if the continued outflow of funds and the Exchange continued decline, around the end of lower deposit rates have necessary. Solutions: Central banks again assessment compliance body might have been more than 6 banks in Zhejiang, this means may be financial institutions was discontinued difference reserve ratio. Central Bank figures showed 21st October added Exchange account for negative growth of $ 24.892 billion for, this opens space for reserve downgrade. To some extent, cut the deposit rate is the Central BankTools to release liquidity, capital outflow will be diluted to a certain degree of policy effects, therefore, deposit rates may rate to lower than expected. Inflation trend, I think, will continue monthly decline this year, but according to the history of the Convention, annual 1Inflation will rise again early next year remains to be seen.����If the marked slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter of next year, decision-making levels is expected to be "somewhat" ease controls on loans, lower reserve requirements would increase the possibility of. You Wenfeng: decline in foreign exchange liquidity on the objective effects, if the continued outflow of funds and the Exchange continued decline,Reserve requirements or cut at the end, this may also be considered monetary policy from "local loose" to "comprehensive easing" signal. Currently, the reserve requirements are reduced, faces multiple constraints: never supported the reserves downgrade, 2012 will still need to digest too much liquidity on the one hand; on the other hand, the Central Bank worried about if the monetary easing, andInflation will rebound, is not conducive to consolidating achievement of control has been achieved. But if money continues to tighten, SMEs would bear the brunt of a large area is affected. Expected stability of the future will continue to maintain a prudent monetary policy, also supported by various form small micro-enterprises to be tilted, before and after the lunar new year in 2012 will be clear. 12 next page